OPEC+’s extra barrels mostly made of paper

Robust demand and a limited supply of additional physical barrels from key OPEC+ producers has kept the oil market in a healthy price range

OPEC+ has added just 160,000b/d of oil to the market since it started unwinding its production cuts in April, according to Petroleum Economist estimates. This is far below its pledged increase of nearly 960,000b/d. However, global demand has remained unexpectedly resilient, with lower fuel prices and a weaker dollar boosting consumption, especially in developing economies. This sustained consumption growth is keeping prices buoyant above $65/bl, even amid broader economic uncertainty and trade tensions. Whether these price levels will pressure shale producers and OPEC+ quota-breakers into compliance remains uncertain. Despite uneven compliance across the OPEC+ bloc, heavyweights within