CER assumes the same international crude oil prices as the IEA
Forecasts of oil sands’ demise greatly exaggerated
Canadian regulator the CER’s Global Net-Zero scenario paints a gloomy picture for the oil sands, but the analysis may be fundamentally flawed
The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) released its annual round of long-term energy scenarios in mid-June, and for the first time provided an outlook for Canadian crude oil production through 2050 under its Global Net-Zero Scenario—one of three scenarios in the Canada’s Energy Future 2023 report and the worst case for the country’s oil industry. Under this scenario, the CER assumes the same international crude oil prices as the IEA in its Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario in its World Energy Outlook 2022 report—$35/bl in 2030 and $24/bl in 2050 based on 2021 inflation-adjusted dollars—and for Canadian crude oil production to drop by the same 76% as global crude oil production over the 2021–50
Also in this section
4 December 2025
Time is running out for Lukoil and Rosneft to divest international assets that will be mostly rendered useless to them when the US sanctions deadline arrives in mid-December
3 December 2025
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
2 December 2025
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
1 December 2025
The North African producer’s first bidding round in almost two decades is an important milestone but the recent extension suggests a degree of trepidation
