CER assumes the same international crude oil prices as the IEA
Forecasts of oil sands’ demise greatly exaggerated
Canadian regulator the CER’s Global Net-Zero scenario paints a gloomy picture for the oil sands, but the analysis may be fundamentally flawed
The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) released its annual round of long-term energy scenarios in mid-June, and for the first time provided an outlook for Canadian crude oil production through 2050 under its Global Net-Zero Scenario—one of three scenarios in the Canada’s Energy Future 2023 report and the worst case for the country’s oil industry. Under this scenario, the CER assumes the same international crude oil prices as the IEA in its Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario in its World Energy Outlook 2022 report—$35/bl in 2030 and $24/bl in 2050 based on 2021 inflation-adjusted dollars—and for Canadian crude oil production to drop by the same 76% as global crude oil production over the 2021–50
Also in this section
12 December 2025
The federal government is working with Alberta to improve the country’s access to Asian markets and reduce dependence on the US, but there are challenges to their plans
11 December 2025
The removal of the ban on oil and gas exploration and an overhaul of the system sends all the right messages for energy security, affordability and sustainability
10 December 2025
The economic and environmental cost of the seven-year exploration ban will be felt long after its removal
9 December 2025
The group’s oil production declined in November, our latest analysis finds, amid divided sentiment over market balances and geopolitical jitters
