Outlook 2025: China faces up to slowing clean product demand

Structurally lower GDP growth and the need for a different economic model will contribute to a significant slowdown

In the decade before the Covid-19 pandemic, China was a critical source of clean product demand growth. Over the period between 2011 and 2019, combined Chinese consumption of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel averaged a yearly gain of 335,000b/d, outpacing that of India (+90,000b/d), the US (+110,000b/d) and Europe (+40,000b/d). Nonetheless, over the next decade Chinese clean product demand is set to slow dramatically, driven by structurally lower GDP growth rates and the need to shift away from an investment-led economic model. The rapid adoption of electric vehicles and LNG-fuelled trucks is also limiting the future outlook for Chinese demand, namely for gasoline and diesel. Early in the cycle