Oil market imbalances divide major energy agencies
OPEC and IEA split on oil demand outlook and even diverge on supply risks, with huge implications for market sentiment
The IEA appears to be factoring in negative sentiment around consumption into its annual outlook, while OPEC seems to be more about extrapolating from the here and now. Given the global economic uncertainty, the oil market appears to be erring towards the IEA’s view, but with a focus on trade tensions with China having somewhat shifted to trade deals in the Middle East, the chasm between the two forecasting agencies may still narrow. The latest monthly oil market reports from the IEA and OPEC paint divergent pictures of 2025 and 2026. While both acknowledge the growing share of non-OECD demand, they differ in overall supply growth forecast, future supply dynamics and the pace of the energy t
Also in this section
13 March 2026
Brussels is again weighing a cap on gas prices amid the Hormuz crisis, but the measure could backfire by deterring the LNG cargoes Europe urgently needs
12 March 2026
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
12 March 2026
LPG could rapidly expand access to clean cooking across Africa and prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths from indoor air pollution each year, but infrastructure shortages and regulatory barriers are slowing investment and market growth
11 March 2026
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
