China’s new oil position

OPEC, upstream investors and refiners all face strategic shifts now the Asian behemoth is no longer the main engine of global oil demand growth

While India has overtaken China as the primary driver of global oil demand growth, the Middle Kingdom remains the world’s largest crude importer and a vital pillar of global consumption. Any fluctuation in Chinese demand continues to influence worldwide refinery margins, crude price differentials and upstream investment decisions. China’s consistent demand growth is now a thing of the past; growth has decelerated, and the debate over when its oil demand will peak persists, with most experts predicting it will reach its zenith within a few years. This has implications not only for global policymakers but also for OPEC and other major producers. Although oil demand in China recovered in 2023 f