There are big differences in the views of the IEA and OPEC to 2028
IEA and OPEC diverge on oil outlook
There is a gulf between the two bodies when it comes to their medium-term forecasts
The IEA and OPEC have each published medium-term oil market outlooks in the past few months. The IEA’s goes to 2028, but OPEC’s is braver in forecasting the market to 2045. There are big differences in the views of the two bodies to 2028, which is remarkable considering it is only a five-year period. However, given their different perspectives on the pace of the energy transition, it is perhaps less surprising. There are big differences in terms of the outlooks for non-OPEC supply. The OPEC Secretariat is much more bullish, seeing supply increasing by 6.98m b/d from 2022 to 2028, compared with the IEA’s much smaller growth of 3.96m b/d. Looking at the data on a country-by-country basis, the
Also in this section
13 March 2026
Brussels is again weighing a cap on gas prices amid the Hormuz crisis, but the measure could backfire by deterring the LNG cargoes Europe urgently needs
12 March 2026
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
12 March 2026
LPG could rapidly expand access to clean cooking across Africa and prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths from indoor air pollution each year, but infrastructure shortages and regulatory barriers are slowing investment and market growth
11 March 2026
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
