IEA and OPEC diverge on oil outlook
There is a gulf between the two bodies when it comes to their medium-term forecasts
The IEA and OPEC have each published medium-term oil market outlooks in the past few months. The IEA’s goes to 2028, but OPEC’s is braver in forecasting the market to 2045. There are big differences in the views of the two bodies to 2028, which is remarkable considering it is only a five-year period. However, given their different perspectives on the pace of the energy transition, it is perhaps less surprising. There are big differences in terms of the outlooks for non-OPEC supply. The OPEC Secretariat is much more bullish, seeing supply increasing by 6.98m b/d from 2022 to 2028, compared with the IEA’s much smaller growth of 3.96m b/d. Looking at the data on a country-by-country basis, the

Also in this section
16 April 2025
Israel continues to strike new oil and gas concession agreements and gas exports continue to rise, but an overreliance on Egypt remains the big concern
15 April 2025
Loss of US shipments of key petrochemical feedstock could see Beijing look to Tehran with tariffs set to upend global LPG flows
15 April 2025
Australia’s East Coast Gas projections for a supply shortfall have been pushed further out, but the challenge to meet evolving gas demand and the shifting assumptions around the fundamentals remain just as stark
15 April 2025
Long-delayed prospects for onshore LNG production in Mozambique have improved thanks to US financing approval, but security challenges blight way ahead