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OPEC presses pause
The group’s oil production declined in November, our latest analysis finds, amid divided sentiment over market balances and geopolitical jitters
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Mistaken assumptions around an oil bull run that never happened are a warning over the talk of a supply glut
Explainer: What do Russia’s oil giants own overseas?
Time is running out for Lukoil and Rosneft to divest international assets that will be mostly rendered useless to them when the US sanctions deadline arrives in mid-December
Letter from London: Oil’s golden triangle
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
The complex crude glut picture
The swelling crude supply story involves the key plot twists of reluctant buyers, limited oil stocks and refiners playing the long game
Alberta’s energy hub sees silver lining
US tariffs bolster Alberta’s Industrial Heartland exports to Asia
Tax policy will shape Russia’s oil future
The consensus among market observers is that the country’s oil output will fall in the long term. Yet few recognise how Moscow’s shifting tax regime is designed to keep the next barrel commercially viable
The curious case of oil-on-water
The market is facing being drowned in excess crude, but one caveat is that a large chunk is due to buyers reluctant to snap up sanctioned barrels
Lukoil loses its growth prospects
The Russian firm made a significant attempt to expand overseas over the past two decades but is now trying to divest its global operations
OPEC+ nears output targets amid unsolved riddles
OPEC+ has proven to be astute at bringing back oil production, but mysteries around Chinese buying, missing barrels and oil-on-water have left the group in wait-and-see mode
Product demand is also expected to increase in 2023
Markets Russia
Simon Ferrie
24 March 2023
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Russia finds the ships to access new product markets

Refining runs and questions over blending—not vessel availability—are likely to determine Russian product export volumes

The EU’s ban on imports of Russian products came into force on 5 February, prompting the latest phase in the global reshuffling of hydrocarbon trade since the invasion of Ukraine. Some in the market have questioned whether there would be enough tankers willing and able to transport Russian products, but so far access to ships does not seem to be a constraint on the pariah state’s exports. The shift since the start of the product import ban has been “stark”, says shipbrokers EA Gibson, with Russia “relatively successful" in finding new markets for more than 1mn bl/d of clean products. And this Russian trade is profitable for shipowners, says Ioannis Papadimitriou, senior freight analyst at an

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