OPEC headquarters in Vienna
Letter from London: Oil’s golden triangle
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
In recent years, oil watchers pointed to OPEC+ providing a de facto price floor and US shale a tentative price ceiling. The Vienna-headquartered group seemed keen to defend $70/bl Brent through production cuts in the name of market stability, while prices well above $80/bl seem to spark a fracking bonanza and start to signal demand destruction. That dynamic ended in the summer of 2025 and was replaced by a new set of unwritten rules: oil’s golden triangle. OPEC+ is no stranger to pre-emptive moves. When the alliance’s eight voluntary producers decided to gradually unwind a specific tranche of 2.2m b/d of production cuts, which had been in place since late 2023, many warned of an impending gl
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