OPEC presses pause

The group’s oil production declined in November, our latest analysis finds, amid divided sentiment over market balances and geopolitical jitters

OPEC+ now acknowledges there may be challenges ahead in 2026. Although the group raised its output target for December 2025 by 137,000b/d, it is pausing further increases for at least the first quarter of 2026. The group’s production declined in November, falling by around 50,000b/d month-on-month, according to Petroleum Economist figures. This was almost equal to the drop in Nigerian production, which was due to a fire on its Yoho platform. Looking ahead, OPEC+ officials will meet bimonthly due to uncertainty about oversupply and geopolitics, while analysts remain divided over the extent of the surplus. Among OPEC-9 countries, only one small producer did not adhere to OPEC+ targets, althoug