Oil in 2026: Five factors to watch
Petroleum Economist takes a look at the critical developments that look set to govern the course of the market for this year
The Middle East and the Americas will determine the course of oil supply this year, while China’s strategic purchases, the fate of sanctioned barrels and the incessant geopolitical swings will provide uncertainty on both sides of the supply-demand ledger. Petroleum Economist sees Brent oil prices averaging around $63/bl in 2026, remaining under pressure early on before seeing some upside later in the year. 1. American oil muscle The IEA believes global oil supply will rise by 2.5m b/d in 2026 after growth of 3m b/d in 2025. The reasoning is that non-OPEC+ producers add 1.3m b/d in 2026, bolstered by rising output from the Americas quintet of the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina. Whi
Also in this section
22 January 2026
As Saudi Arabia pushes mining as a new pillar of its economy, Saudi Aramco is positioning itself at the intersection of hydrocarbons, minerals and industrial policy
22 January 2026
New long-term deal is latest addition to country’s rapidly evolving supply portfolio as it eyes role as regional gas hub
21 January 2026
Petroleum Economist takes a look at the critical developments that look set to govern the course of the market for this year
20 January 2026
The ripple effects of US refiners switching to Venezuela grades will be felt from Canada to China and everywhere in between
